Sleepers That Will Score

By Tom McAleese @FauxFootball27

I had a good week of prognostication last week, going three for five with my end zone picks. Thanks to Jarrett Boykin, Harry Douglas, and Terrance Williams for making me look good.

Here's who I like to find the end zone this week...(Started in less than 25% of Yahoo leagues)


Kris Durham (DET) - Ryan Broyles was supposed to have a breakout year as the number two wide out, but he has mostly been a ghost, totaling just seven catches so far this year, while Durham has caught 13 for 124 over the past two weeks. Durham should be able to work the middle of the field, and that's how I see him scoring, on a slant. My insane prediction...7/76/1

Cole Beasley (DAL) - Sticking with the winning formula of picking a Dallas wide receiver to score, I'm going with Beasley this week. Beasley has solidified himself as the third wide out in a very productive offense, and with the increasing attention paid to Williams, and of course Bryant, that will leave some room for Beasley to work. I see him running a wheel route out of the slot and going in for a score. My insane prediction...6/61/1

Montee Ball (DEN) - Ronnie Hillman's fumbling issues have helped Ball ascend the depth chart to the primary back-up to Moreno. Ball has been used sparingly thus far this year, but with Hillman inactive this week expect to see Ball given a the opportunity fantasy owners that drafted him have been waiting for. I see him getting a goal line carry and taking it in for a score. My insane prediction...10/45/1 (rushing numbers)

Kenny Stills (NO) - I've never been a fan of any Saints wide receiver, mainly because Brees spreads the ball around so much, and you never know who is guy will be from week-to-week. Roll the dice and go with Stills this week. Lance Moore may be back this week, but I see Stills getting his share of snaps. With Graham likely to sit the Saints will use more three wide receiver packages, which bodes well for Stills. I see him catching a long pass down the sidelines for a score. My insane prediction...5/86/1

Robert Woods (BUF) - I have a feeling that this is the week that Woods breaks out. Thad Lewis is not a bad as I expected him to be, and with the shoot-out potential against the Saints, Woods will have a lot of opportunities to catch the ball. I see a short pass to Woods and him making a couple moves and getting into the end zone. My insane prediction...8/104/1

My Gut Feeling...

By Tom McAleese @FauxFootball1
Here's a list of guys that may be a little under the radar, but my gut tells me they will have a big week and find the end zone...(started in less than 25% of Yahoo leagues)

Jarrett Boykin (GB) - I've been harping on this guy all week. He may not posses great speed, but he's got good size and Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. As the default WR2 for the Packers he will have every opportunity to put up great numbers. I see a jump ball thrown to him in the corner of the end zone for a score. My insane prediction...7/92/1

Tim Wright (TB) - Saddled with the rare WR/TE designation, once held by Marques Colston, Wright looks to build off of last weeks strong performance. Regardless of what position he's listed as, he's a top target for Mike Glennon, and should have good value going forward. I see him catching a pass down the seem, and fighting his way into the end zone. My insane prediction...9/125/1

Terrance Williams (DAL) - What does he have to do to win your confidence? Still only started in 21% of Yahoo leagues, even though he's found the end zone two weeks in a row. Don't let Miles Austin coming back scare you off, Williams has done to Austin what Austin did to Roy Williams a few years ago...he Wally Pipp-ed him. I see a long pass down the sidelines for a score. My insane prediction...6/114/1

Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) - Another guy who gets no respect. He's the starter and has a rookie QB that likes to dump off passes. Perfect recipe for a good game. I see a pass to the back of the end zone from inside the five yard line for a score. My insane prediction...7/45/1

Harry Douglas (ATL) - By default he's the starting WR for the Falcons. He will see a lot of targets just because Matt Ryan has to throw to someone. Douglas doesn't have breakaway speed so expect most of his catches to be over the middle on slant patterns, and that's exactly how I see him scoring. My insane prediction...8/107/1

Starts/Sits Week 1

By Shawn Zabran

Starts

Antonio Brown (vs Tennessee) - Big Ben's new number one, RB situation up in the air, and the Titans secondary couldn't stop a nose bleed last year.

Jordan Cameron (vs Miami) - Not an ideal match-up against a tough D for tight ends, but with Gordon out opportunity might be knocking at the door.

Lamar Miller (vs Cleveland) - The Browns usually struggle vs the run, and they continually got smoked against visiting RBs last year at home.

Out on a Limb Start

Brent Celek (vs Washington) - Washington gave up the most points to TEs last year, and with all the injuries to the Philadelphia receivers in the preseason, he could see a lot a passes heading his way.

Sits 

Chris Givens - Peterson and Honey badger could turn this Cards secondary into one of the best in all the NFL.

Jay Cutler - Cutler is a turn over machine, and so is the Cincinnati D.

Eddie Lacy - You generally never want to start any RB vs the 49ers. Especially this rookie. Expect Patrick Willis to own this kid.

Patriots Sleeper Heaven

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By Tom McAleese (@McAleeseFFA)

Things are going to be quite different in New England this year. Four of the five leading receivers from last year are no longer on the team, with the fifth, Gronkowski, possibly starting the season on the PUP, and wouldn't be available till mid-October. That's 82% of Tom Brady's passing yards not on the field for week one.

There has been much speculation as to who will be the new favorite receiver in the Patriots offense. Every week it's someone new, causing a very murky situation, just the way the Patriots like it. Keep 'em guessing.

For fantasy owners it creates a perfect situation to hit the jackpot on a sleeper. But who will it be? (Amendola is not included because he's the only clear-cut starting wide receiver, and will be drafted early)

Kenbrell Thompkins - Thompkins is the hottest name in Sleeperville right now. He looked good in his first preseason game running with the first team offense, and has continued to run with them all week in practice, and has been impressive. He's currently listed as the starting WR opposite Amendola, and with Amendola's injury history he could very easily become the starting WR in no time. If all things pan out for Thompkins a top ten season is not out of the question.

Shane Vereen - The hype around Vereen has been consistent all offseason, especially in PPR circles. With only eight receptions last year he figures to be used heavily in the passing game, and running the routes Hernandez used to run. All things point to Vereen having a breakout season with Darren Sproles type numbers. He will be used all over the field in hopes of creating mismatches, and as Brady's dump down receiver, the role Danny Woodhead vacated.

Aaron Dobson - Dobson was last weeks hot name in Patriots camp, then he only caught two passes, and was used as the fourth receiver when the starters were on the field. I personally don't read much into that. Sure, Thompkins may be getting all the attention right now, but remember this is Belichick we're talking about, do you really think he's going to show any part of his offense in the first preseason game? Dobson has gained the confidence of Tom Brady, and that alone will make it hard to keep him off the field.

Zach Sudfeld - Sudefeld has been playing in Gronkowski's place so far this preseason, and has really stood out. At 6 foot 7 inches tall he's a perfect redzone target for Brady. Injury concerns in college left him undrafted out of Nevada, even though he was rated as the top blocker at tight end in the draft. Jake Ballard was originally thought to be Gronk's replacement, but the play of Sudfeld in camp has pushed him to the top of the depth chart. Even when Gronk comes back, Sudfeld may have won over the coaching staff enough to continue to include him in the offense. If Gronk misses time Sudfeld could help you win some early season games.

Julian Edelman - Edelman, much like Amendola, is cut from the Wes Welker mold as a small, speedy underneath receiver, but cant stay healthy. If he can find a way to outlast Amendola and stay healthy, he could be a viable fantasy option. He has been with team longer than any other receiver and has a better knowledge of the offense that may have him more involved early on than rookies Dobson, Boyce, and Thompkins.

Josh Boyce - Boyce is the one guy no one is talking about, even though he has ran with the first team offense in recent practices. One of these rookie receivers will have to step up, and Boyce has just as good of a chance as Thompkins, or Dobson. He will most likely go undrafted in most leagues, unless he completely blows up the rest of preseason, but he's still one to keep an eye.

Draft Stock Rising

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By Tom McAleese (@McAleeseFFA)

One week of preseason is in the books, which brings us a week closer to the start of the season. With only one series played for most of the starters, it’s a good idea to not overreact too much, however these guys improved their draft stock in limited action.
  
Chris Johnson – Here we go again…Is CJ2K back? He looked like the Chris Johnson of old on that 58-yard run, and may be on his way back to winning over fantasy owners once again.

Chris Givens – Three catches for 82-yards and a score in limited action will move him up a lot of draft boards as a possible sleeper. He looks to be the number one target for Sam Bradford, and could be on the verge of a breakout season.

Steven Ridley – If there was any concern about drafting Ridley as a RB1 there shouldn’t be anymore. Ridley racked up 92-yards on eight carries, although 62 of that came on one carry, he still looked good in the process. Don’t let the 100-yard day from LaGarrette Blount cloud your judgement, Ridley will be the man in New England.

Daryl Richardson – Only four carries, but looked good on a 12-yard run, and has the confidence of the coaching staff to be the starter. Isaiah Pead’s fumble just increased the gap between he and Richardson to become the starter.

Denard Robinson - It’s hard not to get excited every time Denard touches the ball after watching him in college, and you saw flashes of that on his 7-yard cut back run. The Jaguars want to use him and he’s starting to show up on the fantasy radar because of what he can do.

E.J. Manuel - If he wasn’t on your draft board as at least a back-up before this week, he should be now. He looked good in his first preseason game, and will be the starter week one. Even if Kolb somehow beats Manuel out, he will find a way to injure himself.

Other guys who have made it on fantasy radars…
Marquess Wilson (Bears)
Nick Toon (Saints)
Kenbrell Thompkins (Patriots)
Stepfan Taylor (Cardinals)

Late Round Fliers

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By Billy McAleese (@McAleeseFFA)

If you’re like most people, you wish you had seen Alfred Morris coming last year.  He went undrafted in most leagues, and was taken as a flier if he was taken at all.  Truth is, that happens every year.  We find ourselves scouring the free agents after week two or three hoping to land a player that just blew up out of nowhere.

Some assume this year it will be Giovani Bernard.  He, of course, won’t last to the late rounds.  This is about those that will go undrafted in most leagues.  The guys you’ll be shocked if they win games for you.  There is zero guarantee on any of these guys, but that’s kind of the point.  If things fall right, these guys won’t be dumped after a few weeks to try to grab the new rising star.

E.J Manuel (Bills) – A first round pick would seem out of place on a list like this, but it seems likely he’ll go undrafted in a lot of leagues. Early reports out of camp seem promising, and it seems certain he’ll start week one. The common knowledge seems to be that he’s terrible, and to be honest I never thought much of him at Florida State. I was shocked when he was taken in the first round, as were the on-air analysts. NFL people just nodded and moved on. Maybe we all missed something.

Denard Robinson (Jaguars) – The Jaguars are going to find a way to get this guy on the field.  Is he a true running back?  Not really.  Nor is he a quarterback or receiver.  He’s an offensive weapon.  I’d look for him to be in for 10 – 20 plays a game.  If he would have been taken by New England or Green Bay, no one would hesitate to take him in the middle rounds.  The fact that he’s on few radar screens probably says more about Jacksonville than the man himself.

Armanti Edwards (Panthers) – I know what you’re thinking, “He’s still in the league?” He is, and has been a training camp superstar. That’s not worth much in the long run. However, it is unusual for a marginal player who has barely made the roster the past two seasons to receive such a public and effusive praise from the coaching staff. He is currently in a tough three-way battle just to be third receiver with Ted Ginn and Domenik Hixon. I’m not saying he will amount to anything, but if you find yourself in the late rounds, and you’ve already blown a pick on Kickalicous, he might be worth picking up.

Jordan Cameron (Browns) – Maybe everyone is talking about this guy and I just missed it.  With just 20 catches last year, you can be forgiven for ignoring him.  However, he figures to be the starting tight end this year, and Browns coach Rob Chudzinski loves tight ends.  60-80 catches out of this guy wouldn’t surprise me.  The only question is weather Weeden has the wherewithal to find him.

Well, there you have it.  Guys you should take because no one else will.  You’re welcome.

RB Battles to Watch

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By Tom McAleese (@McAleeseFFA)

With the preseason heating up this week here's a list of RB battles to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

Montee Ball vs Ronnie Hillman - This is probably the most intriguing RB battle this preseason, and will probably go on well into the regular season. John fox is known for using multiple backs, and going with the hot hand. Knowshon Moreno could also be thrown into the mix for carries, but the lions share will go to these guys.

As or right now Ronnie Hillman is listed as the starter, although Montee Ball is not far behind. John Fox stated that the depth charts were released only because the league makes them, and that the starter will be based on performance.

Who will win? I honestly don't think it will matter, but Ball will probably begin the season as the starter. Both guys will be used, and used often. Ball will get early down, and goal line carries. Hillman will be in there on passing downs, and as a change of pace back.

Who should you own? In PPR formats Hillman will have value, but overall Ball will be the best one to own. Of course though it would be best to have both, and with Ball's ADP at 79.7 and Hillman ADP at 119.5, according to Yahoo, it's feasible, and smart to draft both.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs Giovani Bernard - I've been big on Bernard all offseason and it's hard to see a scenario, outside of injury, that doesn't favor Bernard. Plus, Green-Ellis has to be the least exciting starting RB to have on your roster in the NFL, whereas it's great to have a rookie that's fun to watch, like Bernard.

As of right now Green-Ellis is listed as the starter, but Bernard's hands, and quick feet will make it hard for the Bengals to keep the ball out of his hands. Bernard may not have the ideal size, compared to Green-Ellis, for goal line work, but he has the ability to break a long one for a TD.

Who Will Win? Early indications are that Green-Ellis and Bernard will have a 50/50 split, but I believe by mid-season it will be more 70/30 in favor of Bernard.

Who should you own? Bernard is the guy you want to own. It may also be advantageous to own both, but you would have to draft them in back-to-back rounds, with BGE's ADP at 98.9 and Bernard's at 111.9, according to Yahoo.

Lance Dunbar vs Philip Tanner vs Joseph Randle - This battle will settle the back-up role for oft-injured DeMarco Murray, which in all likelihood means future starting RB of the Dallas Cowboys. If you watched the Hall of Fame game then I'm sure you were just as impressed with Philip Tanner as I was. Tanner's 17 yard run in the second quarter was probably the best offensive play of the game.

As of right now Tanner is listed behind Lance Dunbar on the depth chart, with Joseph Randle listed fourth. Dunbar's lack of use in the first preseason game suggests that the Cowboys feel confident that he will be Murray's back-up, but after how well Tanner and Randle in played in the HOF Game this battle is far from settled. It has been suggested that Tanner may be on the bubble for a roster spot, but if he continues to play well in the preseason it will be hard to keep him off the final roster.

Who will win? I have to believe that unless Dunbar completely screws up, or one the other guys really shine, Dunbar will be the back-up.

Who should you own? Right now it's Lance Dunbar, but this is still a fluid situation, and probably won't be settled till the end of preseason. Whatever guy wins is absolutely necessary handcuff for Murray. In deeper leagues it may be a good idea to pick up the third string RB on the as well.